12月超级议息周正式来临,四大央行将于周四密集宣布议息结果,周五则是日本央行宣布。金融市场高度重视各央行明年货币政策展望,指引环球投资市场方向及部署明年策略。其中联储局议息结果和新闻发布会将于周四率先出炉。由于美国11月CPI年率飙至近39年最高,意味联储局可能随时宣布将加快缩减买债规模,加息时间亦可能估计推前。

联储局决议前,市场亦关心美国11月零售销售和PPI结果,两项数据亦会给予重要参考,引导加息步伐美元或得到支撑。技术上,美汇指数现徘徊于96附近,若数据和货币政策利好,美汇有望测试96.70 或97。相反美汇回撤,先参考95.63支撑位,扩大回撤幅度将看95.00。

 

周四亦关注瑞士,英国及欧洲央行宣布议息结果。市场一直关注英国何时加息,但受变种病毒出现,英国政府宣布提高防疫措施,可能限制经济增长发展。若英国央行议息会再一次宣布维持利率和量宽规模不变,将可能给英镑带来一些下行风险。英镑兑美元于日图上,1.33阻力依然强劲,可能限制升幅。技术上若跌破近期1.3160低位,有可能扩大跌幅至1.30范围。

另一市场焦点是欧洲央行议息,市场期望央行宣布提早结束“疫情紧急购买计划”(PEPP)和扩大“资产购买计划”(APP),而且市场亦关心欧洲央行对通胀问题的展望,指引央行加息步伐。

 

但欧洲央行一直表示经济复苏仍然脆弱,因变病毒在欧洲蔓延,再次限制经济活动就是例证之一。所以市场目光放在欧洲央行在这会议中期待宣布扩大APP的确实数字或持续时间,若仅限于提出扩大资产购买规模的含糊承诺,让投资者失去欧洲收紧货币政策的耐性,可能带来欧罗下行压力,有机会再考验近期低位1.1230支撑。

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Restrictions on Use

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

AT Global Markets (UK) Limited does not offer trading services to retail clients.
If you are a professional client, please visit https://www.atfxconnect.com/